Italy defeated Estonia 3–1 in Tallinn, showing flashes of dominance in a match shaped by tactical discipline and costly errors. Moise Kean’s early strike was followed by goals from Mateo Retegui and Sebastiano Esposito, while Rauno Sappinen pulled one back for Estonia after a Donnarumma mistake. Israel Schmidt de Azevedo analyses how Italy’s width through Federico Dimarco and structured build-up exposed Estonia’s high press, despite a drop in intensity after the break.
Estonia began with a high press, looking to pin Italy deep in their defensive third. The centre-forward dropped slightly, supported by the attacking midfielder on the right and the left midfielder stepping higher to press Italy’s wide centre-backs. The right midfielder advanced to form a line of four with the central pair, pushing up to the edge of the attacking third. The left-back joined them, while the right centre-back tucked inside and the right-back moved into a narrow role alongside the defence.
Italy looked to play through this pressure by dropping their centre-backs wide outside the box. Gianluigi Donnarumma had short passing options, with both central midfielders moving deep to support and build play. The wing-backs stayed wide to stretch the pitch, maintaining a line of four that allowed for quick switches or long balls behind Estonia’s press. The second attackers shifted between the half-spaces, linking play for rapid transitions, while the centre-forward remained advanced, ready to chase through passes or initiate attacks.
Estonia dropped deep when defending, forming a compact line of four in midfield. The full-backs narrowed to protect the central zone, while the central and side midfielders worked closely to limit Italy’s space. The attacking midfielder and centre-forward formed the first line of pressure, looking to intercept passes into midfield.
Italy’s shape in possession created early openings. At 4 minutes, Federico Dimarco combined with Riccardo Calafiori down the left. Dimarco played a precise through ball to Moise Kean, who dribbled into the box, beat his marker, and slotted home to give Italy the lead.
Italy pressed high out of possession, with the centre-forward leading the press and the second attackers closing the wide centre-backs. Nicolò Barella pushed forward as an attacking midfielder, creating a line of three in front of the midfield. Sandro Tonali anchored the centre with Orsolini and Dimarco providing width and pressing angles. The defensive line held high to block transitions and recover possession quickly.
Estonia attempted to escape this pressure by stretching the pitch. Their centre-backs spread wide, the full-backs advanced slightly, and Palumets dropped in as a defensive midfielder. Soomets pushed ahead, forming a diamond with the attacking midfielder. The centre-forward stayed close to Italy’s defenders for aerial duels, helping Estonia move forward collectively like an organised chain.
When attacking, Estonia built a line of four at the back, with Palumets acting as the right-back. The centre-backs stayed compact while the left-back pushed high. The midfielders spread across the width, with the right-side midfielder advancing as a winger and the left-side midfielder doing the same on the opposite flank. The attacking midfielder supported the centre-forward in a floating role.
Italy’s defensive transitions were disciplined. The central centre-back dropped closer to Donnarumma, while the wide centre-backs provided passing outlets. Both wing-backs moved deep to create a back five. The midfielders dropped to shield the defensive line, while the second attackers stayed ready to spring forward. The centre-forward remained near Estonia’s defenders to contest aerial duels and link play.
At 15 minutes, Italy suffered a setback when Kean was forced off injured and Esposito replaced him. The change did not disrupt Italy’s rhythm. Three minutes later, Alessandro Bastoni fed Dimarco, who drifted inside and passed to Esposito. He cushioned the ball for Retegui, whose shot skimmed past the post.
At 26 minutes, Estonia nearly levelled when Saarma’s cross was poorly cleared by Dimarco and bounced off Shein, narrowly missing the target. Two minutes later, Italy countered quickly. Retegui carried the ball through midfield and switched play to Dimarco, who crossed for Barella. The defender recovered but misplaced his clearance, allowing Retegui to win the ball back before being fouled. The referee awarded a penalty. Retegui took it himself but his effort was weak, and the goalkeeper saved comfortably.
At 38 minutes, Dimarco found Orsolini on the right, who cut inside and threaded a perfect pass to Retegui. The forward made no mistake this time, finishing from close range to make it 2–0 to Italy.
In the second half, Estonia threatened early when Sinyavskiy fired over from a promising counter-attack in the 50th minute. Six minutes later, Retegui tried his luck from distance, sending the ball just over the bar. Shortly after, a deflection fell kindly for Retegui, who flicked the ball through to Raspadori. One-on-one with the goalkeeper, Raspadori missed a golden chance, shooting straight at him.
Embed from Getty ImagesAt 74 minutes, Dimarco and Barella combined before Spinazzola’s cross found Esposito, who struck a superb first-time finish into the net for Italy’s third goal. Two minutes later, Donnarumma made a costly error. After collecting a routine cross, he spilled the ball, allowing Sappinen to react first and score Estonia’s consolation.
The match had two distinct phases. In the first half, Italy dominated with superior tactical structure and fluid combinations, especially through Dimarco’s flank. The missed penalty was the only blemish on an otherwise controlled display. The second half saw Italy slow down, allowing Estonia more space to counter. Despite Donnarumma’s mistake, Italy’s 3–1 win keeps them firmly in contention for top spot in their qualifying group.
Italy must now improve their consistency and focus, with a decisive match against Norway still to come. Losing Kean is a major blow for Gennaro Gattuso’s side, but this result gives them momentum as they push to secure automatic qualification and avoid the heartbreak of another playoff disappointment.
Embed from Getty ImagesWritten by Israel Schmidt de Azevedo
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