On Sunday, Tottenham Hotspur legend Heung-Min Son played his final game for the club after 10 years. The South Korean confirmed his departure before the match, admitting the decision was “the most difficult one I have made in my career”.
The 33-year-old is reportedly off to LA Galaxy in a deal worth £13 million, according to Fabrizio Romano. Therefore, Tottenham must find a replacement.
Embed from Getty ImagesA stat by xG Philosophy revealed Heung-Min Son has been the most clinical finisher in the world since 2014, in terms of expected goals (xG).
According to UnderStat, Heung-Min Son has scored 138 league goals from an xG of 105.28. During his time at the Lilywhites, Son scored 173 goals across all competitions.
So, to replace Son, Spurs will need to find someone with the same kind of ruthlessness in front of goal. Let’s take a look first at the internal options already at the club.
Embed from Getty ImagesInternal options: Brennan Johnson, Wilson Odobert and Min-Hyeok Yang
Across Brennan Johnson’s career, he has only exceeded his xG by 0.48. However, in his first season in the Championship and most recent season in the Prem, he was much more clinical. This suggests that the more Johnson settles, the better he will perform in front of goal.
During the 2023/24 season, his career xG took a massive hit as he underperformed by -6.46 xG. Despite this, the 24-year-old has shown that he is the man for the big moments and will only improve with time and experience.
Wilson Odobert joined Spurs at the start of last season and impressed, aged just 20. The Frenchman has over-performed his career xG by +2.58, with his best performance coming in Ligue 1.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe 2022/23 season saw him overperform his xG by 1.4 for Troyes when he was just 18 years old. With more regular minutes next season, we could see Odobert continue his growth and become a real threat in front of goal.
Surprisingly, young starlet Min-Hyeok Yang has the best xG of the three players already at Tottenham. He has over-performed his xG by +4.81. However, 4.5 of this was in the K League, where the football is nowhere near as competitive as the Premier League, Ligue 1, or even the Championship.
Min-Hyeok is still just 19 years old but his potential is very high. Given his current stats, he could be part of the succession plan for Son. The South Korean needs more loan spells before he is ready for first-team minutes, but he is certainly a player to keep an eye on this season and beyond.
External options: Kolo Muani (£77m) or Leao or Lookman (£43.6m)
Although there are plenty of options already at the club, Tottenham need someone a bit more experienced to achieve the same output they got with Son.
Three players have been linked with Spurs: Randal Kolo Muani, Rafael Leao, and Ademola Lookman.
PSG attacker, Kolo Muani, is in talks with Juventus as they aim to bring him back to Turin, according to TBR Football. However, Tottenham are also keeping close tabs on the Frenchman.
Embed from Getty ImagesDuring his career, Kolo Muani has outperformed his xG by +8.07 across all club competitions. At 26 years old, Kolo Muani is entering his prime years and will only continue being a menace in front of goal.
He is versatile enough to operate anywhere across the front three and would provide goals in addition to scoring them. He would cost Tottenham £48 million, according to TEAMTalk.
Thomas Frank’s side have also entered talks with AC Milan’s Rafael Leao, who is valued at £73.8 million despite his £130 million release clause. According to FotMob, Leao has outperformed his xG by +9.41 throughout his career, making him slightly more clinical than Kolo Muani.
Leao is also 26 years old and ready for a new challenge. He joined AC Milan back in 2019, so it’s the right time for him to make a move and show his quality in a new league. Where better than the Premier League?
Embed from Getty ImagesLiverpool and Barcelona are also interested but lack funds. Barcelona are likely to face financial issues when approaching this deal and Liverpool look likely to hit £300 million in spending once they secure the signing of Alexander Isak from Newcastle.
This gives Spurs the edge. They could swoop in and secure Leao’s signature for almost £60 million cheaper than his release clause.
The final option for Tottenham is Ademola Lookman from Atalanta. The Nigerian has attracted some interest this summer, but no team has met Atalanta’s asking price yet.
Arsenal and Inter Milan are among those interested but no concrete offer has been made by either side. Arsenal are only willing to offer £43 million, according to Goal, but Atalanta want £52 million.
Embed from Getty ImagesInter Milan are supposedly willing to meet the asking price but an official offer is yet to be made. Lookman is the middle-range player in terms of price, but he offers something that Leao and Kolo Muani can not. Lookman counts as a homegrown player.
According to Premier League Rules, each club’s squad must contain no more than 17 players who do not fulfill the “Home Grown Player” (HGP) criteria. The rest of the squad, up to a total of 25 players, must be “Home Grown”.
Lookman is also a fantastic player who, despite a poor spell in England, has gone on to achieve great things in the Serie A and Europa League. During his time at Atalanta, Lookman has scored 39 league goals from an xG of 28.85.
This means that over the last three seasons, he has outperformed his xG by +11.15. Lookman has scored 11 more goals than your average forward would have done with the exact same chances.
Last season, he managed 35 shots on target in Serie A, scoring 15 of those. He also had the most touches in the opposition’s penalty area with 219, highlighting the threat he poses.
The long-term implications of losing Son could be massive if Tottenham don’t replace him quickly. The internal options are good, but won’t be effective immediately.
If the Lilywhites want to make the transition as seamless as possible without their star man on the wing, then Daniel Levy will need to put his hand in his pocket.
The best option appears to be Ademola Lookman. He’s been incredible in Europe over the last three seasons, is the most clinical external player, and has a point to prove in the Premier League.
There will never be another Heung-Min Son, but Tottenham must work to find the next best thing as soon as possible. And Lookman appears to be just that.
Embed from Getty ImagesWritten by Isabelle Newnham
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