How Much Of An Impact Does Brighton’s Away End Actually Have On Games?

Brighton are making big changes at the Amex in order to turn it into the “fortress” Fabian Hurzeler longs for. Safe standing in the North stand, a fan zone outside and the away fans relocated. It’s all part of the club’s plan to make the Amex an away day all teams dread. The biggest upcoming…

INMR

November 27, 2024

3–5 minutes

2024/25, BHA, Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler, Feature, football, INMR, PL, Premier League, sports, Statistics

Brighton are making big changes at the Amex in order to turn it into the “fortress” Fabian Hurzeler longs for.

Safe standing in the North stand, a fan zone outside and the away fans relocated. It’s all part of the club’s plan to make the Amex an away day all teams dread.

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The biggest upcoming change is the relocation of the away section, which will likely be moved into one corner or side area of the Amex.

Brighton currently allow the third highest away allocation in the Premier League, with over 10.3% of the stadium being filled by opposition fans each week.

Paul Barber, Brighton’s chief executive, and Tony Bloom, Brighton’s owner, believe the current configuration gives the illusion of more away fans and takes away part of the home advantage.

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In their account of a recent appearance by Barber at Seagulls Over London, the club reported: “Paul said that away fans will almost certainly be moved to a different part of the Amex from the 2025-26 season.

“Although there was no statistical evidence that the current South Stand arrangements gave visitors any benefit, the consensus inside the club is that what looks like 25% of the stadium being given to visitors (despite the 10% allocation) can motivate away sides when they attack the South end where their fans are.”

In this feature, I’ll show you exactly why moving the away end is a good thing. Also, I’ll share my findings after analysing every goal conceded at the Amex from the start of last season to now.

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It’s important to note before we begin that this is all hypothetical. Of course Brighton aren’t only conceding because the South Stand takes up an entire end behind the goal.

But, it is interesting to see the potential impact of the away fans’ location and how it affects the opposition’s confidence.

Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton manager, has previously said he wants to turn the Amex Stadium into a place that “no-one wants to come to”.

The most stark discovery from looking at Brighton’s conceded goals, is the volume of which occured in front of the away fans.

The Albion have conceded 40 goals at home since the start of last season and 60% of them have been in front of the South Stand.

There were nine games (39%) where all opposition goals came in front of the away fans. This includes the 2-0 defeat to Manchester United at the end of last season, the recent collapse against Wolves (2-2), and the 1-1 draw to Sheffield United last November.

This next graph highlights all goals conceded, broken down into each individual game. The blue represents goals conceded in front of the North Stand, whilst red represents goals conceded in front of the South Stand.

There is far more red than blue, highlighting the vast difference between goals conceded in front of the North and South Stand.

There were just seven games (30.4%) where Brighton didn’t concede a goal in front of the South Stand.

This graph shows that many of the goals conceded in front of the South Stand led to draws or even defeats.

Brighton have dropped 11 points since the start of last season from goals conceded in front of the South stand.

As far as the 2023/24 Premier League season is concerned, Brighton hypothetically would have been seven points better off without those South Stand goals.

That would have placed them in ninth position on 55 points.

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As for this season, Brighton have dropped four points from South Stand goals. This is from the 2-2 draws against both Nottingham Forest and Wolves.

If they hadn’t conceded those South Stand goals, they’d be 2nd on 26 points. Don’t forget, this is all hypothetical.

Overall, the current location of away fans is causing somewhat of a positive impact for visiting sides.

Of course, Brighton won’t stop conceding goals when they move their away end, that’s not how football works.

But the Albion have conceded a huge number of goals in front of what appears to be “25% of the stadium”. Maybe a relocation would give Hurzeler’s side a boost after all.

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Written by Isabelle Newnham